The $76 Billion opportunity for small businesses this summer: how to get your share

summer holiday small business opportunity
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For Australian small business owners, the holiday season isn’t just a time for celebration; it represents the most critical trading period of the year. Let’s be honest, it’s not easy.

While major retailers have the ‘war chest’ to sustain marathon sales campaigns from Black Friday to Christmas and into early January, small businesses have to be more disciplined. You cannot simply out-spend or out-discount the big end of town. And frankly, you shouldn’t try.

Xero analysis shows that if Australian consumers redirected just 10 percent of their household spending from big businesses to small businesses, it could mean $76 billion more in the hands of small retailers.

Cost of living pressures mean Australians are judicious about where they spend their money. However, the data proves that this holiday season, where you spend matters more than how much you spend.

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Shopping small doesn’t always have to cost more. It’s about remembering that every purchase from a small business isn’t just a transaction; it’s an investment in local families, jobs, and communities.

The opportunity is huge. But you can’t just wait for sales to come in. To capture a share of that $76 billion, you need to lean into your unique superpowers.

Here’s how to execute a strategy that wins on value, not volume:

  1. Do not fight the giants on price

It is tempting to slash prices to compete with the discounting of bigger retailers due to consumer expectation. Volume may go up, but profit may not. For a small business where cash flow is critical, this is a dangerous game.

While larger competitors with deeper pockets can often win on price, your key to success is highlighting what makes your business unique: service and genuine connection. Beyond promotions, our data shows that small businesses say the most effective ways to retain customers are personalised strategies like engagement on social media and bespoke offers that major chains can’t replicate.

Whichever way you lean, the key is to be strategic.

  1. Use data to guide decision-making

If you do choose to run promotions – and 41% of small businesses say they do somewhat often – you must ensure they are bringing in new customers without destroying your bottom line.

Digital tools like Xero Analytics allow you to check your margins before you slash prices. Focus on analysing past sales data to understand where you actually made money: was it the heavily discounted items, or the fully priced stock?

Use these tools to calculate your projected free cash flow before making any big investments to get you ready for the holiday period. This data gives you the information to work with your advisor as a true strategic partner – spending your time discussing what can be done, rather than trying to capture the data in the first place.

  1. Simplify team management, and celebrate your wins together

If you have a team, the holiday boom can be the ultimate test of their capacity – and yours. Longer trading hours often mean managing rosters with military precision and finding last-minute cover when life happens.

This is where workforce management apps like Deputy can help simplify scheduling. It’s a smart way to organise your team without manual processes, freeing you up to focus on customers.

The other side to this is keeping morale high. A happy team provides the customer service that big retailers can’t match.

According to Xero’s research, acknowledging wins is linked to stronger business outcomes. So whether it’s a simple text to say thanks, or a celebratory lunch to end a mammoth week, recognise your business’s most valuable asset: its people.

If you’re in the eye of the storm right now, take heart. By focusing on proactive strategies – leaning into your unique value and leveraging digital tools – you can ensure your business captures its share of that $76 billion opportunity.

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Angad Soin is the Managing Director AU & NZ and Global Chief Strategy Officer, Xero.

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