Retail turnover crept up another 0.3 per cent in March, according to fresh stats from the ABS—and while that might not sound like much, it marks the third month in a row we’ve seen growth. For small business owners, that’s a glimmer of good news in an otherwise cautious spending landscape.

So, who’s cashing in—and who’s copping it?

Supermarkets clean up, cafés cop it

Food was the big winner in March, with supermarket and grocery sales leading the charge. In fact, food retailing rose 0.7 per cent—largely thanks to Queenslanders stocking up in the lead-up to Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Think bread, milk, canned soup and maybe a cheeky block of choccy.

But while the big food shops were buzzing, cafés and takeaway joints took a hit. Hospitality turnover dipped 0.5 per cent as wild weather forced many small businesses to shut up shop temporarily.

“Strong spending in food retailing thanks to precautionary buying wasn’t enough to offset other impacts,” said Robert Ewing from the ABS.  “These included temporary business closures for many retailers, particularly cafes and restaurants, while people were also advised to stay home and avoid unnecessary travel.”

People were staying home and avoiding unnecessary travel—and that meant fewer smashed avo orders. Ouch.

Image ABS

Clothing and gift shops see a slight lift

Outside the essentials, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Clothing, footwear and personal accessories crept up by 0.3 per cent. Other retailing (think chemists, pet supplies, books and the like) also nudged up 0.7 per cent. But household goods were flat—no big movement in whitegoods or furniture this time around.

So, if you’re running a boutique or gift store, you might’ve seen a small uptick. But if you’re in the homewares game, it’s probably still a bit quiet.

Queensland cops the brunt, but the rest of the country holds steady

Queensland was the only state to record a drop in turnover—down 0.4 per cent as Alfred rolled through and disrupted day-to-day trade. Everywhere else? Modest gains, from 0.1 to 0.8 per cent, depending on the state or territory.

The takeaway? Weather events still play a major role in how and where people spend. For small businesses in affected areas, the cost of a shutdown goes well beyond the clean-up.

Image ABS

Volume vs value: what people are spending on vs how much they’re spending

Here’s where it gets a bit more complex. While the dollar value of spending went up, the volume of sales (that’s how much people are actually buying, once you strip out price changes) stayed flat over the March quarter.

In other words, people are still shopping, but price rises are doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

Retail prices jumped 0.7 per cent this quarter, and on a per-person basis, spending actually fell 0.4 per cent. That means Aussies might be forking out more at the checkout but walking away with less in their bags.

What can small business owners take from this?

If you’re in food or essentials, keep riding the wave. There’s still solid demand, even in choppy weather. If you’re in discretionary retail, consider whether your pricing, promotions or product mix are working hard enough to win cautious customers.

And for café and hospitality owners, now might be the time to review your wet-weather game plan—especially if you’re in a cyclone-prone area. Can you pivot to delivery, or promote your comfort food staples when people are stuck at home?

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