New research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan shows Back to School spending is on the rise but fewer Aussie families can afford to the purchases.

Australians are forecast to spend  $2.9 billion this year on school gear, that’s up $200 million on last year’s back-to-school shop. In 2025 around 5.1 million Aussies hit the shops in search of back-to-school products compared with a predicted 4.5 million this year. .  The  research found only one in five Australians (21 per cent)  plan to fork out their hard earned for their kids’ school needs

The research revealed while  fewer shoppers are doing the heavy lifting, those who are shopping for school supplies are spending more than ever.

The numbers behind back-to-school 2026

The  ARA data points to a market that’s shifting fast.

Average spend per shopper is tipped to hit $573, up $48 or 9.1 per cent on 2025. Around 49 per cent of shoppers say they’ll spend more than last year, while  just over a third (34 per cent) plan to cut back, reinforcing the change towards higher-value baskets.

ARA CEO Chris Rodwell says the lift in spending is welcome, but it comes with a warning for retailers and policymakers alike.

“Back-to-school is the first major seasonal moment for retail after Boxing Day and peak-season trading. While these are largely essential purchases, they provide important early-year momentum for many retailers,” he said.

“At the same time, we are seeing fewer households participating in major retail events in the past year, while those that can afford to spend are spending more. It’s a narrowing market, and it reflects the pressure many families remain under.”

Budgets tighten as prices rise

The ARA warns that hgher spending isn’t coming from splurging, but rather from the rising cost of essentials.

Nearly 44 per cent of shoppers are budgeting more than $500, while 22 per cent expect to spend over $1,000 this year. That’s a big leap from last year, when only 15 per cent planned to spend at that level.

Rodwell says the drop in participation tells a bigger story about household finances.

“With 600,000 fewer Australians able to take part in essential school spending this year, it’s a strong sign some household budgets are still under stress,” he said.

“Now is not the time to add further pressure through interest rate hikes, with consumer demand clearly constrained.”

Women driving school shopping

Women continue to drive back-to-school spending, accounting for 75 per cent of household purchasing decisions.

Around 2.6 million women, or 24 per cent, plan to shop this year, compared with 1.9 million men, or 18 per cent. Participation has fallen across genders, but women remain the main decision-makers when it comes to school spending.

What’s in the trolley hasn’t changed much either. Essentials top the list for most buyers. School uniforms remain the most common purchase, followed closely by stationery. School shoes, books, lunch boxes and drink bottles round out the list.

Bricks and mortar stores score most sales

Despite the ongoing shift to online retail, back-to-school remains a very physical shopping event.

Around 60 per cent of shoppers say they plan to buy in-store, compared with 39 per cent online, giving bricks-and-mortar retailers an important foot traffic boost at the start of the year.

Most purchases are being made for primary and high school students, although some households are also buying for university and TAFE, with a smaller proportion supporting postgraduate study.

The research also suggests that many schools, along with some state governments, will be offering financial assistance and exemptions for families experiencing hardship in 2026.

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