Australians are gearing up to spend 43 per cent more this Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM), according to new research from Shopify. Just don’t expect a shopping free-for-all. Consumers are being choosier about when, where and how they spend.

After a few years of cost-of-living caution, it seems optimism is back in fashion for Aussie consumers and retailers. Shopify’s Holiday Retail Report 2025 found nearly eight in ten Aussie retailers (78 per cent) feel more confident heading into the festive season, with three-quarters expecting higher sales than last year. Consumers are also loosening the purse strings and are planning to spend an average of $324 this BFCM, up from $226 in 2024.

While business owners are feeling cautiously optimistic, more than half of shoppers (58 per cent) are setting strict budgets, and 27 per cent say they’ll be even tighter this year.

“Planned holiday spending may be up, but it’s still more focused than freewheeling,” says Shaun Broughton, Shopify’s Managing Director for APAC and Japan. “Shoppers are entering the season with optimism, clearer budgets, and higher expectations. They’re starting earlier, switching channels seamlessly, and seeking real value in every interaction.”

Black Friday sales start earlier

Shopify’s report shows that more than a quarter of consumers have already started shopping for bargains, but most businesses are late to the party, risking missing those eager early-bird shoppers. To catch them, businesses will need to make their value clear and their deals too good to scroll past.

Princess Polly’s Global Brand Director, Stephanie Mooresaid gamification has a role to play in sales success.

“Our customers treat Black Friday like a game. They build their shopping lists early and wait for the perfect deal, so our promotions have to be compelling from the start.”

AI joins the Christmas rush

Artificial intelligence (AI)  is shaping up to be retail’s secret Santa this season. Almost two-thirds (61 per cent) of Australian shoppers say they’ll use AI for at least one task while shopping. This could help them find deals, compare products, or generate gift ideas. More importantly, nearly half plan to use AI to save money on purchases.

Retailers are on the same page: 89 per cent are already investing in AI to help customers discover and buy products, from smart chatbots to predictive inventory tools. While AI can help convert customers, Broughton says it’s important to remember the human touch is a vital component of sales.

“Retailers that blend early engagement, frictionless checkouts, and the right mix of AI and human touch will be best positioned to convert intent into lasting loyalty,” says Broughton.

Karim Zuhri, CTO at Koala, agrees. “We’ve focused on delivering seamless, high-performance experiences under peak load – from optimising site speed to building intelligent systems that connect directly with Shopify. The retailers who treat customers with intelligence, delivering fast, factual, conversational experiences, will win their attention and loyalty.”

Still, not everyone’s sold on AI. Aussies are among the most sceptical globally, with 72 per cent saying they’re wary of AI and 78 per cent insisting they still value buying from a person.

I feel the need for speed

When it comes to what Aussies want this festive season, it’s the basics that matter most. More than half (57 per cent) say fast, simple shopping tops their wishlist; followed by freebies (27 per cent), prizes or surprise deals (19 per cent) and exclusive gifts (16 per cent).

Delivery speed remains a dealmaker or breaker, too. A third of shoppers (34 per cent) rank faster delivery or lower shipping costs among their top reasons to buy local. No wonder 41 per cent of businesses plan to offer free samples or gifts with purchases, and another 38 per cent are rolling out interactive online experiences to keep things lively.

Supporting local businesses also continues to resonate. Thirty-one per cent of shoppers say backing the Aussie economy is a top reason to buy local, followed closely by great customer service (33 per cent) and ease of finding products (29 per cent).

“Local advantage earns loyalty,” says the report. “Brands that lean into their homegrown values are better positioned to earn trust.”

The rise of the hybrid shopper

Retail shopping has become a truly hybrid affair, with shoppers opting for a mix of online and in-store experiences. More than a third (38 per cent) of Aussies plan to split their shopping between online and in-store this year, while half prefer to buy small items online and head into a shop for the big stuff.

Getting the checkout process right is critical to success. Those surveyed say they’ll bail on the sale if checkout takes too long. Over half of shoppers (52 per cent) have abandoned a purchase due to clunky checkout processes. Discounts (54 per cent), free shipping or returns (44 per cent), and excellent service (38 per cent) remain the biggest loyalty drivers.

Broughton predicts that brands that act early will win this year’s sales season.

“The brands that make their value unmistakable, purchase choices easy, and every experience seamless and trustworthy will win not just the season, but the future of retail.”

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